Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 180.685586 212.935238 250.904617 299.344803 360.129251 434.725319 5.345235e+02
2025-10-26 141.173438 180.154630 231.040925 303.848407 407.931764 555.584985 7.890339e+02
2025-11-02 117.395701 158.296461 215.725660 305.118283 446.362791 671.593814 1.082586e+03
2025-11-09 99.561771 139.829498 199.548003 298.758950 468.575708 767.063723 1.384742e+03
2025-11-16 86.497820 125.526459 186.041297 292.180153 486.744701 859.570125 1.726747e+03
2025-11-23 76.308335 113.791136 174.118167 284.951384 500.690623 947.610767 2.108319e+03
2025-11-30 72.926481 112.184738 178.153345 306.163434 574.082213 1185.824452 3.021619e+03
2025-12-07 67.332686 106.059733 173.326151 309.560957 611.764761 1359.734906 3.905949e+03
2025-12-14 63.156200 101.755724 170.973262 317.158544 660.861657 1585.314253 5.193191e+03
2025-12-21 58.528767 96.062893 165.165057 316.320515 689.826875 1770.684956 6.557092e+03
2025-12-28 57.123620 95.992380 170.008188 339.485858 786.911619 2218.568272 9.839310e+03
2026-01-04 55.188845 94.675443 172.143039 356.959461 875.481599 2701.440153 1.443225e+04
2026-01-11 52.845390 92.451911 172.405820 370.929146 962.661595 3262.810881 2.147169e+04
2026-01-18 50.199877 89.348562 170.397556 378.977909 1036.121359 3841.544534 3.135607e+04
2026-01-25 47.378014 85.580279 166.411005 381.045688 1091.509793 4398.103742 4.454337e+04
2026-02-01 44.138924 80.630447 159.138612 372.714833 1107.664652 4775.634698 5.838926e+04
2026-02-08 41.216271 76.069709 152.210554 364.049134 1120.121212 5156.304418 7.659936e+04
2026-02-15 38.538410 71.786379 145.428165 354.532117 1126.321878 5516.136426 9.976479e+04
2026-02-22 38.252884 72.597578 150.834363 382.513913 1300.100588 7292.577121 2.135663e+05
2026-03-01 36.682776 70.446755 148.750523 387.009213 1375.637798 8477.192816 3.646025e+05
2026-03-08 35.503626 69.056750 148.394283 397.074644 1483.886022 10199.497827 7.331722e+05
2026-03-15 33.890496 66.544816 144.879673 395.963527 1537.696738 11529.083513 1.333508e+06
2026-03-22 33.752269 67.400651 150.239323 426.756949 1780.191224 15813.873312 5.961833e+06